The AI MD TM

Why Baselines Matter More Than Population Averages

Hamed Abbaszadegan, MD, MBA

July 10, 2026

One of the most important lessons from clinical informatics is that individual trends often matter more than population norms. Healthcare has traditionally relied on reference ranges derived from large populations. Wearable technology allows us to move beyond this model.

For the first time, individuals can establish personalized physiological baselines.

This shift represents a fundamental evolution toward precision health.

Your normal resting heart rate may differ significantly from someone else's.

Your normal heart rate variability may differ substantially from published averages.

Your sleep architecture may be unique to your physiology, lifestyle, genetics, and health status.

What matters most is not whether you match a population average. What matters is whether you are deviating from your own baseline.

This concept forms the foundation of modern digital biomarker research. Relative change often carries greater predictive value than absolute numbers. A sudden deviation from your personal norm frequently tells us more than comparison to a generalized reference range.

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